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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the only head of an EU nation to support Donald Trump. This support was hardly surprising, given Mr Orbán's adoption of controversial theories like the "great replacement" theory and the restrictions against press independence. Commentators observe that Hungary's premier practically pioneered Trump's base, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support In advance of Hungary's Polls

Recently, ahead of key votes in Hungary just approaching in six months, the American leader reciprocated with support. With Orbán aims for a fifth straight win leading a country he describes as an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party currently trails in surveys. An official trip to Washington yielded more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it obtained considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Despite earlier admonishing European nations on the need to halt all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against nations persisting to buy Russian oil, Donald Trump agreed to provide a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian oil. Per the Hungarian leader, the US government also promised to provide a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it encounters any later issues, given that the European Union persists in holding back large sums from the EU to Hungary due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this deal remain unclear. Yet Mr Trump recently demonstrated his willingness to support ideological allies as the US provided a a $20 billion loan to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. While Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks nonetheless was a productive session.

EU Concerns and International Implications

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention probably highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, prior to which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, enjoys a comfortable lead in the polls. Heads of state have learned not to expect steady principles from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the American leader's attempts to undermine the EU. Yet the special treatment for Orbán – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens European goals to end Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, these two countries, have funneled well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to hinder advancement in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

Péter Magyar has steered clear of promising a major policy shift on Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to finally behave as a productive EU partner. After years of repeated disruptions, EU officials can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to core EU ideals, including the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has long been a humiliating embarrassment for the European Union. His continued obstructionism on Ukrainian matters risks undermining its long-term safety.